COVID 19-Induced Lockdown 2.0 and Looming Crisis across Sectors of Economy: Evidence from the Indian States

Abstract

Due to the coronavirus-induced lockdown, most economic activities have come to a standstill. It assumes that lockdown with social distancing measures may lower the spread of infected cases, as it will be over-optimistic to expect the complete burnout of the virus. The present study attempts to access the loss of the country’s economy in the wake of the coronavirus-induced 50-day lockdown (40-day lockdown + 10-day preoperative period). The data on Net State Value Added (NSVA) at base price 2011-2012 by economic activity was collected from the Reserve Bank of India for five consecutive financial years. This study assumes 10-day for restoring back to the production capacity, although each sector has its own dynamics and different cycles. The autoregressive process was used for forecasting the growth rate of Gross Value Added. The study found that across Indian states, the amount of loss was most extensive in the state of Maharashtra, as against Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Besides the manufacturing sector, the enormous burden of loss was reflected in the real estate sector, followed by ownership of dwellings and professional services. The highest per capita loss of the NSVA was found in the state of Goa, as against Delhi. The study argued that all the affected sectors likely to register negative growth in the subsequent two quarters.